you cannot escape history...

for some time now I have commented (mostly within my inner circle) how fascinating it is to watch the decline of a global hegemon first hand. it is a cycle that has been repeating itself since the dawn of history...and unfortunately for us, it is one that tends to speed up each time through. before the industrial revolution a global (and really, being a white american male, by global I mean more of a "western") hegemon could count on a few hundred years of solitude atop the world...but then the dutch rise and fall happened relatively quickly. the british stepped in to the void and eventually beat out the rest for world domination for some time. but britain's fall was, historically speaking, rather remarkably sudden after its rise. it was only about 150 years before the brits were eclipsed by their upstart cousins in america. and now it has been somewhere between 60 and 90 years for the united states and the tell-tale signs of decline are already much further along than we might expect.

over the last decade many smart people have been dismayed over the rise of religion in our politics, specifically a bizarre millenialist christian belief system that seems to actively seek the end-times. but this is by no means a strictly american occurence. millenialism has reared its head and come to frightening prominence in just about every hegemon when its time at the top was coming to a close. most recently, british society (many leaders and so-called "upper class" people) embraced an idea that the end of the world was just around the corner.

typically, this is accompanied by some nasty world events that, to the believer, buttress the belief that we have reached the end (because exceptionalist beliefs within hegemons never fail to omit life after hegemony as a possibility). more often than not it has been a great war, barbarian hordes invading, struggle for the seas, colonies rising up, the war to end all wars, the war against terrorism. and the struggle is always framed as the be-all-end-all fight between that which is good, and that which is evil. and yet the world always continues on...

along with these strange millenialist beliefs comes a degrading of science in favor of religiosity. the best minds are ridiculed at best and harshly repressed at worst. this process of ridding the nation of thinkers and innovaters so that others could catch up has hastened as the spread of ideas and knowledge has arrived. and we are seeing it now happen in virtually the blink of an eye (historically speaking).

economically, manufacturing, the actual creation of tangible goods, is severely neglected. the top dog nation adopts the view which the spanish perfected - let the world be our workshop. ironically, it has almost always been a commitment to manufacturing and openness towards ideas that led to hegemon status in the first place. spanish manufacturing collapsed spectacularly when the crown stamped down on important economic groups. the dutch began what the british and now the americans would later perfect - utter neglect of manufacturing in the worship of financialization of the economy. the windmills that had brought incredible wealth that allowed this tiny country to rule the world economy were left still. rather than pour itself into further industrial developments, the dutch moved to financial markets and became the bankers of the world. unfortunately, that didn't last as the brits did innovate industry...until they moved to the bankers of the world as the american manufacturing giant was awoken with assembly lines and technological advancements once only in science fiction.

the love of financialization pays off at first when the strong manufacturing base provides an influx of cash and allows the hegemon to become the creditor of the world. but it wears off...and as industry advances at an ever quickening rate, so the window closes just as quickly. and it tends to close ever the more speedily when the nation throws itself into a treasury draining military conflict (colonial wars, succession wars, wars of religion, great power struggles, wars against terrorists). suddenly, the world's great creditor is the world's great debtor.

and then, the hegemon is eclipsed and is no longer the biggest baddest boy on the block. it is inevitable, no nation has yet proven to live up to its self-described exceptionalism and avoid the cycle of history. and yet we believed we could break the chain.

there is good news and bad news. the good news is, sometimes the hegemon has been able to soften the fall and remain relevant. the bad news is, that really only happened with the brits (and to a much lesser extent, the dutch)...and there is an awfully good chance that this has a lot to do with the fact that the dutch and the brits were a natural progression, which was a natural progression to americans. unfortunately, there is no anglo nation to take up the reins...and it appears the next global hegemon will not even arise from the west.

I guess what I am saying is this...we are fucked. given the relative quickening of all these process, it is likely going to be a brutal fall as well. and as fascinating as it is to see from the inside...what I wouldn't give to be a few generations older.